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Jeremy Bushong
7 min read

Why You're Not Losing Weight

So you're dieting all the time but the scale isn't moving. You're doing all the right things including tracking your food, making good food choices, and hitting the gym - but still nothing.


It's frustrating, confusing, and down right maddening. I get it.

Not angry, just HANGRY.

So what's the deal? Is your metabolism dead? Are your hormones off? Are you in "starvation mode"? Is it all in your head? Probably none of those - but it's complicated.


Here's what's really going on.




The Law of Thermodynamics


The laws of physics don't lie. And unfortunately for us, these laws apply to humans. Our bodies follow the laws of heat transfer, energy, and thermodynamics just like machines. These laws have been tested, retested, and shown to be true countless times.


Your body needs a certain amount of energy to function - a baseline number. Then a little extra energy to account for your daily activity. This is called your base metabolic rate, or BMR.


Your BMR is the amount of energy you need to consume (if you didn't exercise) to "break even." If you did exercise, you would account for a little extra energy, but not nearly as much as you would think.


  • If you consume, on average, less energy than your BMR your body will tap into its fat cells to make up the difference.

  • If you eat, on average, more energy your body will store it as excess fat.



Simple in premise, but you'll notice I said "On Average." This is what messes with most people.


Humans do not defy the laws of physics, no matter how much the laws suck. Even though the scale can seem to be all over the place (it goes up after drinking 3 glasses of water, down after a particularly large meal), your body still obeys the laws even if you don't understand it.


And if your hormones ARE out of whack, your body still responds to the laws. Hormone imbalances may affect the proportion of fat or muscle gained and lost, but the end equations will still be true.


So why does it seem like no matter how much we do things right they still go wrong?




Everything is an Estimate


The first reason is simple - everything we do is an estimate. From calculating your base metabolism, to estimating your calorie intake, and even monitoring your exercise calories, they are all just estimates.


Estimates can only go so far - and if they're all even a little off, that can snowball into bigger issues.



Measuring your exact metabolism is tricky


Scientists have, over the years, developed equations and models that can replicate what the "average" metabolism should be. So when we plug in a person's information, we can get a rough outline of how many calories they need and how their body should respond to calorie intake.


But it's still just an estimate.


All people are different, and certain hormonal imbalances can cause these estimates to be off. Thyroid disfunction, PCOS, corticosteroids or even birth control, for example, can make someone's calorie expenditure lower than predicted. While this won't change the overall balance of the equation, it could mean that an "estimated" BMR of 1600 calories is really 1400 calories.


That's a 200 calorie difference.



Estimating your exercise expenditure is tricky


I go into detail with this blog post - Your fitness trackers are wrong. - but it's worth repeating here.


You burn significantly less calories while exercising than you would expect.


This can be particularly frustrating for people who are operating on a precise calorie budget. If you're tracking everything, and assuming a 500 calorie "burn" after a workout, you'd be extremely upset to realize the burn was only 200 calories.


Planned exercise accounts for about 10% of our daily caloric expenditure. Even if you're dropping puddles of sweat on the floor, this number is disappointingly low. Plus, the better you get at exercise the less calories you burn.


Torso mounted calorie trackers can be more precise than wrist-mounted trackers, but unless you're spending 2-3 hours per day in the gym, I wouldn't bank on this number too heavily.


I encourage my clients to ignore this number completely.



Measuring your calorie intake is tricky


Let's add to this frustration, shall we? Even if you're assuming a low baseline metabolism and a low exercise burn, we now factor in the margin of error of logging food.


Calorie tracking apps and website can be pretty darn close, but also amazingly terrible. A quick search for "grilled chicken sandwich" in a popular food tracking app yields multiple results - one for 660 calories, another for 240 calories, 350 calories, 500 calories, and so on.


Which one is correct?


Even if the software is correct, are you? An ounce of heart-healthy almonds is listed as 170 calories, but what if you ate a "handful" of almonds? Realistically, that could be 3 ounces - 510 calories. High calorie foods like this don't leave much room for error. Listing an ounce of almonds when you ate 3 is a difference of 340 calories unaccounted for.


With all the above examples added up, we're at nearly 800 calories of "misappropriated" energy every single day. Mistakes happen, we're human. Which brings me to my main point of this article.




Humans are notoriously bad at self-reporting




Humans are VERY bad at self-reporting. We have trouble being honest with ourselves. It's not that we're intentionally lying, we are just naturally good at it. Maybe it's a defense mechanism?


Many studies have been done on this topic across all fields of psychology, exercise, and nutrition - with some studies showing that subjects can misreport their activity by as much as 90%.

For instance - how many times do you munch on small handfuls of food while prepping your meal? Do you account for that? Those numbers add up. How accurately do you weigh and measure EVERY piece of food you eat? It's just not possible.


An example of this would be my personal story of olive oil. When I cook, I sometimes use olive oil. But actually logging the oil is a different story. In one particular instance, I remember actually tracking nearly 8 tablespoons of olive oil (I was prepping food for a week), when I would have "guessed" it to be 2 tablespoons. Just for reference, that's nearly 1000 calories worth of oil.


I know you've experienced this before.


If you've ever gone out to eat at a restaurant and "estimated" a food to be low calories, you're probably wrong. Restaurants love making food taste good. This means oil and butter on EVERYTHING. Even the healthy options can be loaded with more calories than you would expect.



We Focus on the little good, not the major bad


In addition to being bad at self-reporting, we also tend to focus on the few healthy choices we make, but not the many unhealthy choices.


I call this the weekend syndrome- it's when you diet hard during the week but absolutely DESTROY your progress during the weekend. I know I'm definitely guilty of this. And you probably are too.


Let's create a (hypothetical) example:


Jeremy is a 30-something fitness professional who wants to trim down and lose a few pounds for an upcoming sport competition. He really wants to make a change, and is focusing primarily on his diet to see results with his sport training as his primary exercise.


Being a fitness professional, he estimates his BMR to be approximately 2400 calories with his daily activity adding another 500 calories, and his daily exercise adding another 300 calories. This means he needs a daily intake of about 3200 calories to maintain his weight.


So far so good.


He actively tracks his food during the week - and estimates about 2500 calories per day consumption, with at least 30% of these calories coming from protein sources. In theory, this should create about a 700 calorie daily deficit, plus exercise, which should yield approximately 1-1.5 pounds of fat loss per week.


But that's not happening.


Instead his weight is stalling - and even creeping up. What gives?

The yellow line is his metabolic output.

If we chart out his daily calories (as he reports them), we see that during the week Jeremy eats very well. Mostly greens, lean meats like fish, and plenty of fruits and vegetables. His caloric intake is indeed below his daily maintenance requirements (yellow line). He should be on track to lose weight.


But take a look at Saturday and Sunday - the two days he chooses not to log his food.


A bit of insight shows he binges on the weekend, making up for the "lost" opportunities he gave up during the week. Indulging himself in whatever he wants because he feels like he's earned it, Jeremy ends up overeating during the weekend which brings his weekly average up OVER his calorie needs. Way over.


This common mindset - the weekend syndrome - is the downfall for many people.


If we take this a step further and account for possible mistakes in the original estimates, the difference could be even more. For example, his estimated BMR was 2400. But what if it's actually 2000? Jeremy logs his food very closely, but what if he's 150 calories off every weekday? What if his exercise isn't as intense as he thinks?


All of these numbers could make the discrepancy even worse.




So What Are You SUPPOSED to do?


Don't get me wrong, meticulously tracking and logging your activity can help. It's probably the most accurate method we have - but it can still be wrong.


So here are some strategies for dealing with this:



1 - Track Your Food Cautiously


But be aware of discrepancies. Assume a 60% accuracy rating with food logs. Know that everything is an estimate. If you're not seeing the changes, you're overeating somewhere.


Are you binging or indulging?


Is SOMETHING creeping into your daily coffee? Perhaps some cream, sugar, or syrup?


Are you overeating at night?



2 - Go Easy On Yourself


Stress can increase cortisol, which can throw all of our calculations off. If you're not seeing the progress you want, don't fret. There's nothing wrong with you, but something is creeping in somewhere.


Be mindful of what you eat and why you're eating it.



3 - Make Good Food Choices


Try to follow the 85/15 principle. Make good food choices 85% of the time to account for bias in self-reporting. Be aware that what you consider 85% may really be 50%. That is, you may feel like you're "always dieting", but could you be indulging more than you realize.



4 - Take Food Photos


For some people, it helps to take photos of what you eat and "re-evaluate" later. You can make a game out of this.


Take a photo of a few things you eat throughout the week and go back later to "guess" the calorie contents. Then try to accurately log and measure to see how off you are.



5 - Get Outside Accountability


Hire a coach or get a friend to keep you accountable. Ask your family members to help you out. Find someone who can keep you honest.


We are very bad at keeping ourselves honest, but outside influences can help.




You Are Human, Sorry.


In the end, you're human. The laws of physics DO apply and you make mistakes. Sometimes just understanding this can create a breakthrough moment and help you on your journey. Don't get frustrated, but understand what's going on.




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